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Does SpaceX have the resources to build a colony on Mars?
No. Not by a long shot.The main reason is that no-one, no human• on the face of this planet right now has any reasonable or believable idea of what the total resource cost will be, might be, or is going to be. - As of today.And you can guarantee that whatever resource estimate someone might calculate (lets say Mr. Musk and his • planet sized brain• can actually build a spreadsheet with all the details in it)…everyone who lays eyes on it knows that it’s going to be wildly inaccurate & error prone by a very large %…because no person in the history of humanity has ever built a colony off planet Earth.The resources needed is not a compute-able quantity in advance.Any answer proposed cannot be believed.A simple fact to put things into perspective…building a rocket to get you there & back, probably isn’t even 1% of the resource cost. And that statement is probably off by a factor of 200%.Yes, but we have some experience. Right?Building a self sustaining research station on Antarctica or in the Atacama desert, or inside the Arctic circle is one thing; and we have quite a lot of historical experience doing that - today (after 100 years of trying & failing & lots of people dying). Extrapolating all that hard earned experience & understanding of resourcing such efforts…then translating that into a resource plan for a Martian colony on a planet where there is no oxygen, no atmosphere, only 38% of Earths gravity, deadly radiation pouring down on you every second, no native energy sources, no food, no plant life…its almost impossible to estimate in advance.Below is Scott Base, Antarctica.And Thule Airbase in the Arctic.And the Atacama desert in Chile (on this planet).In-fact, its such an insanely difficult exercise to do that before you start estimating the resources needed, you know in-your-heart that you’ve already got it wrong. You’ll never get the resource estimate right, So you throw away your spreadsheet and basically…you realize that you need to go in with a blank check. - That’s how governments approach territorial colonization. It’s a religious, political & national commitment.Which is why Countries, Nations & Sovereign States engage in colonization, establish & create territorial colonies. Corporations and businesses do not.Humanity used to do colonization in concert with corporations 300 years ago. The concept of a business corporation was actually created (by Holland and England) to assist those governments with the Herculean efforts of expanding the empire and colonizing unclaimed remote territories and managing the immense financial & resources heavy burden of building an empire. Great examples of this model are the infamous & legendary colonization corporations like…“Dutch East India Company (the VOC)”Which was an early 17th Century Mega-Corporation. A government-backed military-commercial enterprise, formed from a government-directed amalgamation of several rival Dutch trading companies. The VOC possessed quasi-governmental powers, including the ability to wage war, imprison and execute convicts, negotiate treaties, strike its own coins, and establish colonies. Through its technology, investment & commerce the company famously raised the commercial & industrial potential of many underdeveloped & undeveloped regions of the world. This seems like a model that might work for SpaceX. But lets not forget that the VOC was dissolved in 1799. All assets were taken over by the government, with all the VOC territories becoming Dutch government colonies…and that the VOC engaged in monopolistic policies, exploitation, colonialism, violence, and slavery. - Corporations don’t legally do these things in 2019.East India Company (EIC) of Britain. So famous…that is was simply known all over the word as “The Company”. - Now that’s a brand!‘The Company’, was formed & Royally charted by the Queen of England on 31 Dec, 1600. and was so successful that it rose to account for half of the world's trade !!!The EIC ended up seizing control over large parts of the Indian subcontinent, colonized large parts of Southeast Asia (the region), and colonized (basically owned) all of Hong Kong. By 1803, at the height of its rule in India, the British East India company had a private army of about 260,000—twice the size of the British Army. It exercised military power, claimed territories and assumed full administrative functions over them. Through its technology, investment & commerce it too famously raised the commercial & industrial potential of many underdeveloped & undeveloped regions around the world.Humanity doesn’t do Corporate Colonization & territorial expansionism like this anymore!! - It doesn't work.I don’t see Earth’s governments stepping back into the dark 1600’s and blessing SpaceX with a Royal Government Monopolistic charter to engage in Territorial Planetary Colonialism…for the sole benefit of Elon Musk’s personally, his bank account, his company, his net-worth, his investors and his gigantic ego. - That’s just not going to happen.Also, there’s an entire United Nations Space Treaty legal framework in place that prevents any Earth corporate entity from getting anywhere near colonizing a planet (or part of it), a dwarf planet, a moon, an asteroid or a zone of non-earth space as its own ‘private corporate mega asset’.The Outer Space TreatyOuter Space Treaty - WikipediaSo lets not use silly language like…“SpaceX Colonizing Mars”. That’s just Elon Musk, SpaceX obsessive-religious fanboy language.It’s not even legal for a corporate entity that is not recognized by the United Nations as a Sovereign State to legally create & own a colony as a business asset. So IMO, SpaceX will never legally Colonize Mars. SpaceX may be a business vendor that supplies services to some Sovereign state (or a alliance of countries) who will legally colonize Mars…but SpaceX (the Corporation) will likely never legally Colonize Mars, or anything. - that’s just nonsense & fantasy.Net-net:It’s nearly impossible (as of today) to estimate the resources needed in advance. A real colony basically requires a blank check. - Which ironically is easy to estimate.No human has any experience or capacity to draft an estimate and have the answer be received as credible or believable.No VC Mega Syndicate is going to privately fund SpaceX with a blank check to go colonize Mars, especially when people are definitely going to die.It’s not legal for a corporation to colonize anything (on or off Earth). Again, what VC Mega Syndicate would fund an effort with that much unknown legal risk, where you’d be fighting governments & the UN and a UN treaty that was signed & ratified 52 years ago.Humanity hasn’t even accomplished Colonizing the Moon . In-fact, after 50 years, Humanity hasn’t even started that job yet. - Talking about doing it on Mars is ludicrous. Humanity needs another 50 years just to figure out how to actually attempt building a real off-planet colony.Therefore, No. SpaceX does not have the resources to colonize a Mars. It couldn't even attempt that on the Moon.
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